Saturday, March 05, 2005

A few odds and ends 

Some random tidbits from some chat sessions online...

Nate Silver's BP chat session touched on Kenny Rogers, who BP's PECOTA system likes a lot. Silver notes that PECOTA comps him with Warren Spahn, which he thinks overstates things, but he also thinks the rumors of Rogers' imminent demise are exaggerated, and that Rogers should be solid again in 2005.

Silver also has the A's winning the West with a 92-70 record...while I think that's overly optimistic, I think, like Silver, that the A's will be a lot better than they are being given credit for.

Joe Sheehan fields a Ranger question in his chat session on BP, predicting that the Rangers will regress because of a lack of talent on the pitching staff and an offense that is overrated due to TBIA, with Texas finishing a tad under .500. Sheehan also has a piece on the Post-Hype Syndrome, looking at players who fall off the radar screen after getting prospect hype, only to bounce back after an adjustment period of a year or two. Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez, Lyle Overbay, and Hideki Matsui are guys he identifies as having done that in 2004, and Joaquin Benoit is someone he suggests keeping an eye out on in 2005.

Finally, BA's John Manuel did a lengthy chat session on BA's top 100 prospect list (which included John Danks, Thomas Diamond, Ian Kinsler, and Joaquin Arias). While he had a lot of interesting things to say, his Ranger comments tended to contradict each other...on the one hand, being asked about a bias against the Rangers because of their poor development track record, he denies that players get extra points (or docked points) for the organization they are in. On the other hand, he claims to like Diamond and Danks more because of Grady Fuson's track record. I guess that that could be interpreted as giving more weight to Fuson's judgment in taking those two as high as he did, but still, the juxtaposition is odd.

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