Sunday, March 20, 2005

My prediction on Shawn Chacon 

I don't know if I've already mentioned this or not, but I want to make sure I'm on record with my prediction that the Rangers will pick up Shawn Chacon before the season starts. Probably for John Hudgins, or Gerald Laird.

Why Chacon?

Because I think the Rangers don't want to go into the season with two young starters in the rotation, and I think they don't want to go into the rotation with Park in the rotation.

I think they'd like to get someone via a trade, such as Chacon, and go into the season with a rotation of Rogers, Drese, Chacon, Astacio, and either Ho or Young.

I think they -- specifically, Hicks and Hart -- are terrified of the idea of starting the season 11-19 or something like that, and losing all the momentum they got from last season, and having the fans lose interest by June 1. You'd also have the fans screaming again about John Hart being here, Randy Galloway and Jim Reeves and the like writing snide columns about the do-nothing offseason and the highest-paid G.M. in the game doing nothing to improve the team...

I think management thinks that by having some established mediocrities in the rotation like Chacon and Astacio, it makes it less likely that they'll get blown out of the A.L. West race early, they can limp along at .500 until the ASB, and sell more tickets.

I don't think the front office thinks that this team is going to be a playoff contender, but I think they are extremely afraid that going with Rogers, Drese, the Ho, and a couple of kids will result in a bunch of early blowouts, the team getting buried, and attendance going into the tank, and this is a way to try to keep that from happening.

So I expect that we'll see Chris Young and Ricardo Rodriguez (who went 5 shutout innings today, with 6 Ks and just one walk) start the season in AAA, while Astacio, Chacon and the Ho hold down the #3 through #5 slots in the rotation.

And I expect that that will set the Rangers back a couple of months, as time that should be used evaluating guys like RicRod and Young will instead be used seeing if Astacio's shoulder can hold up for six innings.

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